Thursday, October 19, 2006

Today is the first day of the rest of your life. How many more might there be? (Redux)

An earlier posting, Today is the first day of your life. How many more might there be? on February 9, 2006, provided a test one can take to get an idea of to what age he might live. It came from an article from the October 1996 issue of the French magazine Paris Match which included the test from an original source provided by two British life insurance actuaries. It can be accessed by keying in "paris match" in the "SEARCH THIS BLOG" box in the upper left corner of this screen.

I have recently come upon two other such tests: the "Early Warning Life Expectancy Calculator" and the "Eons Longevity Calculator", which can be accessed respectively at http://home.worldonline.dk/eskemj and www.livingto100.com.

In the first of these, one just types in his gender, the date of his birth (day, month, and year), the time of his birth, and the country in which he was born (only Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and the USA are available). Following that, the calculator churns a bit and then displays the exact time of his death (day; month; year; time in hour, minutes, and seconds). I found that I was going to die at age 87 on June 16th of a certain year at 5:33 A.M. and 36 seconds. Obviously such a calculation with no data about the individual’s health condition, lifestyle, health history of his parents and siblings, etc. is not credible. However, strangely enough, the second of these calculators (which asked for much of one’s data) also said I would live to 87.

To do a comparison of the three calculations of my longevity I redid the one from Paris Match and found that I would live much longer–to age 96.7. In doing it I took a conservative approach, in that for any question for which the answer was doubtful I took the shorter life choice–example: I could have added two years to my life if I had answered that my father lived to age 80, but did not do so because he suddenly died of a heart attack six days before his 80th birthday.

A comparison of the questions asked by the two calculators that do delve into one’s health profile–the "Eons Longevity Calculator" and the one in Paris Match–is interesting. The former asks 40 questions and the latter 24. The former’s questions (said to be composed by a Thomas Perls, M.D.) get into more nitty gritty about worry and stress, personal hygiene, and diet (it asks "Do you floss your teeth?", "Do you use sun screen?", "How much tea and coffee do you drink?"), whereas the latter is more general in its questions. The Eons one also gives advice as to how to add years to one’s longevity–e.g., taking aspirin every day could add 1.0 years, cutting back sweets can add, 0.5 years, minimizing exposure to the sun can add 0.5 years.

I am surprised that neither of these calculators asks anything about raising children; certainly being a parent (and later a grandparent) enriches one's life and tends to add to its longevity--assuming, of course, that the children turn out to be decent adults. Likewise, the calculators ask nothing about owning pets--I am sure that my blood pressure goes down when I pet our four cats, and that the great pleasure that I have in their being around must go toward longer life for me.

Notwithstanding that two calculators say I will live only to age 87, I’m going with the one that says 96.7–those extra 10 years sound good.

The Paris Match put me at 86.2. Very generous. I'll take it!Am enjoying the Eons site. Thanks! --Posted by rapa to Rambling Musings of Mycroft Watson at 10/20/2006 10:27:46 PM

Congratulations, rapa. But you can do even better if you cut back on snack foods. I hope you do as well, or better, on the Demko calculator. Mycroft.

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Mycroft Watson is the nom de plume of a man who has seen many winters. He is moderate to an extreme. When he comes to a fork in the road, he always takes it. His favorite philosopher is Yogi Berra. He has come out of the closet and identified himself. Anyone interested can get his real name, biography, and e-mail address by going to "Google Search" and keying in "User:Marshall H. Pinnix" (case sensitive).

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